Tory Times
by Rick Peterson
Sept 11, 2009

(Vancouver) So, here we go again. It looks like Canadians could be going to the polls in a few weeks for the fourth federal election in five years. Whoopee. Try to contain your enthusiasm.

Yet, despite election fatigue, and no matter where you stand on the federal political spectrum, this could be a very interesting election to watch, especially so if, like me, you’re a federal Conservative.

Why is that? Because six years after the merger of the former Progressive Conservative and Canadian Alliance parties, the federal Conservative movement has never been stronger. The federal Liberals, on the other hand, have gone through their darkest hour in decades, drifting in a downward spiral created by the Chretien-Martin-Dion leadership turnovers and today hoping to find their way back into relevance with Michael Ignatieff.

This upcoming vote may help us see if past Conservative gains continue, or if the Liberal free fall is turned around. It’s my bet that the Tory gains of the past few years will grow, partly because the federal Conservatives have broadened their appeal and learned to shift many of their policies and priorities to the centre.

Red Tory Renaissance
Many moderate “Red Tory” policies that former Progressive Conservatives subscribed to are now very much part of federal Conservative policy thrusts, a “renaissance” that political columnist Lawrence Martin pointed out in the August 13th Globe and Mail – hardly a pro-Tory newspaper.

Martin says that the Conservative government is moving towards thawing out relations with China, a top priority highlighted in a speech delivered last week in Bejing by former Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. The federal Conservatives have become more open to climate change questions. Deficit spending is obviously on the agenda, as are culture subsidies. While strengthening Canada’s military, he points out that the Conservative government is becoming more nuanced on the use of military force as a primary foreign affairs focus.

On top of that, he says, Red Tory concerns that the merged Conservative Party would become a social conservative bastion simply haven’t played out. The Globe columnist writes that Prime Minister Harper, unlike former US President George W. Bush, has shown to be ideologically flexible, “broadening his perspective from that of a regional man to a leader who sees the country and the world in a more enlightened context.”

“Traditional Red-brand Tories,” the Globe and Mail column concludes, “should applaud. They’ve been validated.”

Well, we do applaud. But at the same time we should be clearly thankful that we’ve been given the chance, by the success of the merged Conservative Party, to see our ideas play a role in shaping Canada’s future.

Because, without the December 2003 PC-CA merger, the former federal Progressive Conservative Party was probably only months away from extinction. Our best years were behind us, not ahead. Our following was limited to small pockets of support scattered across the country, with not enough concentrated financial or electoral muscle to make our presence felt in an election. As a result, our policy ideas had no chance of being heard.

In the West, from 1988 to 2003, Progressive Conservatives were swept away by Reform and then Canadian Alliance parties, led by Preston Manning, that were much closer to the electorate’s real concerns: deficits, government reform, and clarity on the Quebec separation issue. But, the CA couldn’t break out of its western regional protest role. Quebec belonged to the Bloc, a product of the dissolution of the Progressive Conservative coalition, and Ontario’s moderate, centre-right voters, having no viable federal Progressive Conservative alternative, massively voted Liberal.

So, the 2003 PC-CA merger gave Canada’s conservative movement the time, the leadership and the resources it needed to thrive and take power. Two minority governments later, the federal Conservative base is still expanding. We have not formed a majority government yet, but we’re very close. And here’s more good news - it could be only a matter of time until Canada again sees a long period of steady, majority government in Canada based on Tory values.

Canada’s “Founding Values”
How can that happen? Probably not so much through political strategy or brilliant campaign slogans, but rather through the massive and inevitable shift in demographics taking place in Canada these days. We may get a better idea how this could happen on September 18th , when a much-anticipated and already highly acclaimed book written by one of Canada’s leading public policy thinkers, Brian Lee Crowley, is published under the title “Fearful Symmetry: The Fall and Rise of Canada’s Founding Values”.

Crowley’s book traces the two forces that have shaped Canada for the past 50 years – the entry of baby boomers into the workforce and the rise of separatist Quebec nationalism, bringing with them the twin threats of large scale unemployment and the break-up of the country. The response to these threats was the expansion of the welfare state in Canada. According to Crowley, we became a nation of “takers” rather than “givers”.

But, as Crowley sees it, the tide is turning. The boomers are retiring, and Quebec nationalism is becoming a spent force. As a result, he sees a renaissance of our country’s “founders’ values” that served us so well in the past, and will do again in the future: namely, a ferocious work ethic; a commitment to the family as the most important social institution; a suspicion of overweening government; and an aversion to dependence on the welfare state.

Hmmm…this list sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

Yes it does, if you’re a Conservative or have read federal Conservative policy platforms in the past six years. So, if Crowley and others like him are right, there has never been a better time to be a Conservative, or to become a Conservative, since these “founders’ values” are embedded in Tory DNA no matter how far back you go along the lineage of former Progressive Conservative, Reform or Canadian Alliance predecessors.

As the Conservative Party continues to grow and mature and broaden its appeal, as the Globe and Mail article pointed out is happening, it’s got an excellent chance to become the conduit and the reflection of these emerging Canadian founders’ values. That is so very, very clear. Canada’s values and Conservative Party values appear to be in lockstep, mirror images of each other. Under such conditions, strong and majority governments are formed.

The soul of our country
On the other hand, it would seem to be a stretch for federal Liberals – the party of big government, big projects, increased state role in the economy - to embrace Crowley’s founders’ values. For that to happen a significant DNA makeover would need to take place, a challenge difficult at the best of times, let alone today, as the Liberals push for an election brandishing little more than a vague promise of somehow being able to “do better”.

So, let’s see how things play out. Maybe Brian Lee Crowley is wrong. Maybe the new Liberals under Michael Ignatieff are for real and they will capture the heart and soul of Canadians from coast-to-coast. Maybe all the Conservative rebuilding success since 2003 matters not. Maybe Prime Minister Harper’s stewardship in leading two minority governments through war and recession was a fluke. Maybe this Conservative government’s embrace of Red Tory policies will be ignored by swing voters in Ontario and Quebec. Maybe this rise in Conservative fortunes is but a short-term blip and will fade before the Liberal juggernaut.

Maybe, but somehow I just don’t think so. It just doesn’t feel like it, although things can change quickly in an election campaign.

In the short term, though, leaders of all political parties come and go. Policies and polls change weekly. Elections fade into memory. Yet over the long term, ultimately, the government we end up getting is usually a government that reflects the soul of our country, and the values that we hold closest to our heart.

And from here, with that in mind, it certainly appears that in the years ahead, there will be no better time to be a Tory.

Cordially,

Rick Peterson